Stocks finished a really bad January on a high note, with
the S&P rallying 2.50% to end the month down about 5%. The Nasdaq fared far
worse; finishing January down about 7%, led lower by Apple, Amazon and biotech.
Despite strong earnings from Celgene and Amgen, it wasn’t enough to turn the
biotech sector around as the IBB dropped a staggering 21%, led sharply lower by
Gilead Sciences and Regeneron, among others. The Nasdaq is going to go where
biotechs go, and it’s my belief that where the Nasdaq goes, the entire stock
market goes. Luckily there is strong support in the IBB at $247.35, another
7.4% from Friday’s close. That would put the ETF at the 52-week low and 38% off
the all-time high from July. But without the big cap biotech names turning
around, there will be much more pain for investors.
With that, here’s a look at some stocks that will be on the
move this week:
MONDAY (GOOGL)
Google or Alphabet (GOOGL) or whatever they’re called now
will report earnings after the bell. The company is on the verge of overtaking
Apple as the largest company in the world by market cap, and has traded really
well this year, down just 2%. Trading at just 21x FY16 earnings, Alphabet isn’t
that expensive. The last few quarters have been outstanding, leading to sharp
rallies, and given what Facebook reported on Wednesday, you have to expect Alphabet
will be just as strong. The stock has already rallied 11% from last week’s low
and 6.7% since Facebook reported Wednesday afternoon. I think Alphabet will
report another strong quarter, but I also believe a lot of that was priced in
over the last couple days. I would much rather wait to see if you could pick it
up at $700 (where it was just last week) on another market sell-off, then buy
it on Monday before they report. If you miss it, you miss it, but I believe the
risk is to the upside. There is strong upside gap support at $695.81, which is
also the 61.8% retracement and a great level to begin building a position.
TUESDAY (CMG, GILD)
Burrito chain, Chipotle (CMG), reports Q4 earnings after the
bell, and the average analyst estimate is calling for earnings of $1.86/share
on revenues of about $1B. The company already warned that Q4 sales were going
to take a significant hit due to the e-coli outbreak, so I’m not too concerned
about what their Q4 sales were, but I’m more concerned about what management
forecasts going forward and what trends they are seeing thus far in Q1. If you
have a long-term time horizon, Chipotle isn’t a bad risk/reward “buy” going
into earnings. Establish half of your position Tuesday morning and then wait
for the stock to gain some momentum to buy above $485, a level I can see it hit
if the company issues better-than-expected sales guidance. However, with that
said, I think you’re better off buying Jack In the Box (JACK), which owns Qdoba
and should be a big benefactor of the Chipotle e-coli outbreak.
On Tuesday afternoon, Gilead Sciences (GILD) will report,
and this is going to be a big one. Gilead has been taken out to the woodshed
and more since hitting an all-time high last July, falling 33%, and 18% this
year alone. Things didn’t get any better on Friday, when the company announced
that CEO, John Martin will be stepping down and taking over the role of
Executive Chariman, being replaced by COO, John Milligan. That sent the stock
down about 5% on a day when the broader market rallied 2.5%. Gilead has also
been a major target, more so than most biotech companies, of presidential
candidates, as high drug costs are becoming an important part of each presidential
debate.
Gilead is also in a world of pain technically, It hit a new
52-week low on Friday, gapping down below the Black Monday low, which had been
previous strong support, and you probably don’t have any additional support
until $63. Putting additional stress on the stock press is a congressional
hearing that will take place on Thursday regarding drug prices. The problem is
that these politicians don’t really understand why certain drugs are priced so
highly. Years and years and years of research goes into creating this drugs and
in the case of Gilead’s Hep C drugs, you pay a high price for a short-term
treatment, which will end up saving hundreds of thousands of dollars avoiding
surgery.
While I think there will be pricing pressure on Gilead, they
continue to have a strong drug pipeline, a ton of cash, pays a dividend, trades
at a ridiculously low valuation of about 7x FY16 earnings and has a PEG rate of
0.46. I cannot recommend buying the name prior to earnings, but if you’re
already in then stay in. Gilead is a strong long-term buy, so on weakness, you
can be in this name.
All week of earnings will lead us into Friday’s unemployment
number, which will likely be the biggest market driver of the week. I am still
calling for the S&P to rally to 2066 before finding major resistance, but I
still urge caution in buying into rallies. Wait for the market to pullback when
oil or China takes us down.
My current positions: Long Gilead Sciences
(GILD), Starbucks (SBUX), Time Warner (TWX), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), Darden
Restaurants (DRI), Celgene (CELG), Mobileye (MBLY), Jack In The Box (JACK),
Under Armour (UA), United Rentals (URI), Regeneron (REGN), Apple (AAPL), Southwest
Airlines (LUV), Dow Chemical (DOW), Costco (COST), Amgen (AMGN), Home Depot
(HD), Allergan (AGN), FireEye (FEYE), Humana (HUM), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS),
Disney (DIS), Lockheed Martin (LMT), TJX Companies, Altria (MO), Constellation
Brands (STZ), and Bristol Meyers Squibb (BMY).
Jeff Lewison